The Exit of Jerome Powell: 8 Years, 3 Presidents, and One Fragile ‘Soft Landing’
Jerome Powell has officially stepped down as Chair of the Federal Reserve. After eight years of navigating a global pandemic, battling historic inflation, and standing firm against unprecedented presidential pressure, here is what you need to know about his legacy.
Appointed by President Trump and reappointed by President Biden, Powell’s term concludes on May 15, 2026. Remarkably, his tenure begins and ends under the same president who first gave him the gavel. But what did he actually achieve? From your mortgage and 401(k) to the recent DOJ criminal investigation that threatened his exit, here is the four-minute breakdown.
Legacy by the Numbers
Powell’s economic track record is historic. According to analysis from Reuters and Business Insider:
"He expanded the balance sheet to nearly $9 trillion, stopping a liquidity crisis from becoming a solvency crisis and keeping credit flowing when it was needed most. It was a remarkable feat," says Jean-Baptiste Wautier, Head of Economic and Global Monetary Policy at Wautier Family Office.
Official Context: The Department of Justice (DOJ) abruptly closed its criminal investigation into Powell on April 24, 2026. The probe, which focused on renovation costs at the Fed’s D.C. headquarters, had briefly stalled the nomination of his successor, Kevin Warsh. Ranking Member Maxine Waters denounced the inquiry as “baseless, politically motivated, and an abuse of power.”
Powell’s economic track record is historic. According to analysis from Reuters and Business Insider:
- Record Low Unemployment: Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that under Powell, the average monthly unemployment rate sat at 4.6%—lower than any Fed Chair since 1978.
- The Inflation Miss: The Fed's preferred metric—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—climbed from 1.6% in 2018 to roughly 3% by early 2026, remaining stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target.
- Emergency Response: In 2020, Powell slashed rates to zero and expanded the Fed’s balance sheet to nearly $9 trillion, a move credited with preventing a second Great Depression.
- Current Standing: As of the April 29, 2026 meeting, the benchmark federal funds rate remains steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, with the Fed opting for another "hold" on rate cuts.
"He expanded the balance sheet to nearly $9 trillion, stopping a liquidity crisis from becoming a solvency crisis and keeping credit flowing when it was needed most. It was a remarkable feat," says Jean-Baptiste Wautier, Head of Economic and Global Monetary Policy at Wautier Family Office.
Official Context: The Department of Justice (DOJ) abruptly closed its criminal investigation into Powell on April 24, 2026. The probe, which focused on renovation costs at the Fed’s D.C. headquarters, had briefly stalled the nomination of his successor, Kevin Warsh. Ranking Member Maxine Waters denounced the inquiry as “baseless, politically motivated, and an abuse of power.”
How Powell Impacted Your Wallet
Powell’s eight-year term directly influenced the three things that matter most to Americans:
Powell’s eight-year term directly influenced the three things that matter most to Americans:
- Housing: Mortgage rates have hovered near 6.6% recently. Powell’s parting message was blunt: "We can move rates, but we don’t really have the tools to address the structural shortage of housing." He warned that lower rates alone wouldn't fix the market.
- Jobs: In March 2026, Powell noted that private sector net job creation had hit zero. He highlighted a historic anomaly: labor force growth is effectively non-existent for the first time in US history.
- Your 401(k): His aggressive rate hikes in 2022 initially sent markets tumbling before they recovered. With inflation still above target, the Fed’s "pause" on cuts continues to dictate the volatility of retirement portfolios.
The Political Firestorm
Though nominated by Trump in 2018, Powell spent much of that first term being publicly attacked by the President for raising rates. By 2026, that tension reached a breaking point:
- The Cook Case: Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage-related allegations is currently heading to the Supreme Court.
- DOJ Pressure: Powell publicly described the DOJ’s criminal probe as part of a campaign of "administration threats and constant pressure."
- The Standoff: The investigation was only dropped after Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) blocked the confirmation of Trump’s nominee for Chair, Kevin Warsh, until the probe was resolved.
Status of the ‘Soft Landing’
Despite the chaos, Powell managed to raise rates to fight inflation without triggering a full-scale recession—a feat economists call a "Soft Landing." However, that landing is currently looking shaky. With conflict in Iran pushing Brent Crude toward $110 per barrel, inflation fears are resurfacing. Markets now see only a 35% chance of a single rate cut in 2026.
Despite the chaos, Powell managed to raise rates to fight inflation without triggering a full-scale recession—a feat economists call a "Soft Landing." However, that landing is currently looking shaky. With conflict in Iran pushing Brent Crude toward $110 per barrel, inflation fears are resurfacing. Markets now see only a 35% chance of a single rate cut in 2026.
The Bottom Line: Jerome Powell isn't leaving the building just yet. He will remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until January 2028, though he will no longer lead the monthly press conferences that moved global markets.
